Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS64 KMEG 150409
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1009 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

The latest GOES East Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows a sharp line
of stratus clearing along the Tennessee River. As a result, skies
are clear across the entire Mid-South at this hour. With a weak
pressure gradient in place, patchy fog will develop across the
majority of the Mid-South, mainly near water bodies. The areas to
watch for dense fog will be over west Tennessee, where low
stratus hung out for most of the day. HREF guidance suggest that
there is about a 50 percent chance of visibilities less than a
half a mile in that area overnight. HREF also suggests that low
stratus, that is just east of the Tennessee River, may build back
in as far west as Memphis by daybreak. Still, confidence remains
too low at this time to pull the trigger on a dense fog advisory.

The current forecast is on track with temperatures falling into
the low to mid 40s.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Mainly clear and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
Clouds will begin to overspread the Midsouth late Sunday into
early next week as a cold front approaches the Mississippi River
Valley. Tuesday and Wednesday look cloudy and wet. A secondary,
stronger cold front will usher in the coldest airmass of the
season after midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Patchy fog is possible tonight due to clear skies, light winds
and abundant ground moisture. Morning lows will be in the 40s.
Highs tomorrow should warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s,
under clear skies.

A broad ridge and surface high pressure will shift out of the
Plains and across the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow through
the weekend. As a result, mostly clear and dry conditions will
prevail through Sunday. The surface high will shift over the
Appalachians Sunday setting up return flow across the Midsouth.
15-20 mph south winds will usher 60-65 degree dew points back
across the Midsouth early next week. Rain showers will overspread
the region Monday ahead of a cold front on Tuesday. Thunderstorms
do not look likely. At least a few showers will linger Wednesday.
A secondary cold front late Wednesday or Thursday will result in
another round of widespread showers followed by the coldest
airmass of the season. Guidance suggests temperatures could be in
the 30s areawide Friday morning with highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Stratus over W TN is expected to erode towards the TN river this
evening. Latest guidance indicates the potential for some patchy
fog overnight, then possible re-development of MVFR ceilings at
MKL Friday morning. Confidence is lower for impactful ceilings at
other sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected
through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC